{"id":14681,"date":"2019-02-01T01:26:13","date_gmt":"2019-02-01T01:26:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swimchannel.flywheelsites.com\/?p=14681"},"modified":"2026-02-22T20:15:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-22T23:15:32","slug":"o-quanto-devemos-confiar-nas-projecoes-olimpicas-para-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swimchannel.net\/br\/o-quanto-devemos-confiar-nas-projecoes-olimpicas-para-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"O quanto devemos confiar nas proje\u00e7\u00f5es ol\u00edmpicas para 2020?"},"content":{"rendered":"

No final de 2018, o site Best Swimming trouxe o chamado “p\u00f3dio ol\u00edmpico virtual.” Basicamente, uma proje\u00e7\u00e3o dos p\u00f3dios das provas de nata\u00e7\u00e3o em piscina para os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de 2020 baseada nos rankings mundiais em piscina de 50 metros de 2018. Para ler a mat\u00e9ria, clique aqui<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Mas qual \u00e9 a rela\u00e7\u00e3o hist\u00f3rica dos resultados do ano que marca exatamente o meio do ciclo ol\u00edmpico com os resultados da Olimp\u00edada a seguir? Ser\u00e1 que tais resultados costumam se confirmar dois anos depois? Afinal, 2018 (assim como foram 2014, 2010 etc) s\u00e3o anos sem campeonato mundial de piscina longa, e as proje\u00e7\u00f5es s\u00e3o baseadas majoritariamente nos resultados das principais competi\u00e7\u00f5es da temporada internacional (Campeonato Europeu, Pan-Pac\u00edfico, Jogos da Commonwealth).<\/p>\n

Para essa avalia\u00e7\u00e3o, fizemos um levantamento levando em conta os dois ciclos ol\u00edmpicos passados, levando em conta apenas provas ol\u00edmpicas individuais.<\/p>\n

Comparando 2014 com 2016:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Entre aqueles que estavam em 1\u00ba no ranking mundial em 2014 nas 26 provas individuais, em somente 8 provas (30,7%) os nadadores mantiveram a 1\u00aa posi\u00e7\u00e3o na Olimp\u00edada de 2016. Ou seja, em 69,3% das provas os l\u00edderes dos rankings em 2014 n\u00e3o confirmaram medalhas de ouro em 2016.<\/p>\n

Aqueles que confirmaram foram:<\/p>\n

Katie Ledecky<\/a> (400m e 800m livre)
\nSarah Sj<\/a>\u00f6<\/a>str\u00f6m<\/a> (100m borboleta)
\nMireia Belmonte<\/a> (200m borboleta)
\nKatinka Hosszu<\/a> (200m medley)
\nGregorio Paltrinieri (1500m livre)
\nAdam Peaty<\/a> (100m peito)
\nKosuke Hagino<\/a> (400m medley)<\/p>\n

Entre aqueles que estavam entre as 3 primeiras coloca\u00e7\u00f5es no ranking de 2014 (total de 78, 39 em cada sexo), apenas 15 no feminino (38,5%) e 13 no masculino (33,3%) se mantiveram em posi\u00e7\u00f5es de p\u00f3dio em 2016.<\/p>\n

Veja como o quadro de medalhas virtual baseado nos resultados de 2014 e o quadro de medalhas obtido em 2016 s\u00e3o diferentes (lembrando que contabilizamos apenas provas individuais):<\/p>\n

Virtual 2014
\nrank pais ouro prata bronze total
\n1\u00a0 \u00a0 AUS\u00a0 \u00a0 6\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a03\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a03\u00a0 \u00a0 12
\n2\u00a0 \u00a0 JPN\u00a0 \u00a0 5\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a05\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01\u00a0 \u00a0 11
\n3\u00a0 \u00a0 USA\u00a0 \u00a0 3\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a03\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a06\u00a0 \u00a0 12
\n4\u00a0 \u00a0 GBR\u00a0 \u00a0 2\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a07
\n5\u00a0 \u00a0 SWE\u00a0 \u00a0 2\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

Olimp\u00edada 2016<\/strong>
\nrank pais ouro prata bronze total
\n1\u00a0 \u00a0 USA\u00a0 \u00a011\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a07\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a09\u00a0 \u00a0 27
\n2\u00a0 \u00a0 HUN\u00a0 \u00a0 3\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a07
\n3\u00a0 \u00a0 JPN\u00a0 \u00a0 2\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a06
\n4\u00a0 \u00a0 AUS\u00a0 \u00a0 2\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a05
\n5\u00a0 \u00a0 GBR\u00a0 \u00a0 1\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a03\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a00\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Comparando 2010 com 2012:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Entre aqueles que estavam em 1\u00ba no ranking em 2010 nas 26 provas individuais, em somente 7 provas (26,9%) os nadadores mantiveram a 1\u00aa posi\u00e7\u00e3o na Olimp\u00edada de 2012. Ou seja, em 73,1% das provas os l\u00edderes dos rankings em 2010 n\u00e3o confirmaram medalhas de ouro em 2012.<\/p>\n

Aqueles que confirmaram foram:<\/p>\n

Ranomi Kromowidjojo (100m livre)
\nJiao Liuyang (200m borboleta)
\nRebecca Soni (100m peito)
\nYe Shiwen (200m medley)
\nSun Yang<\/a> (1500m livre)
\nMichael Phelps<\/a> (100m borboleta)
\nRyan Lochte<\/a> (400m medley)<\/p>\n

Entre aqueles que estavam entre as 3 primeiras coloca\u00e7\u00f5es no ranking de 2010 (total de 78, 39 em cada sexo), apenas 15 no feminino (38,5%) e 19 (48,7%) no masculino se mantiveram em posi\u00e7\u00f5es de p\u00f3dio em 2012.<\/p>\n

A seguir a compara\u00e7\u00e3o entre o quadro de medalhas virtual baseado nos resultados de 2010 e o quadro de medalhas obtido em 2012 (apenas provas individuais):<\/p>\n

Virtual 2010<\/strong>
\nrank pais ouro prata bronze total
\n1\u00a0 \u00a0 USA\u00a0 \u00a0 7\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a09\u00a0 \u00a0 12\u00a0 \u00a0 28
\n2\u00a0 \u00a0 CHN\u00a0 \u00a0 5\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a08
\n3\u00a0 \u00a0 JPN\u00a0 \u00a0 3\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a07
\n4\u00a0 \u00a0 GBR\u00a0 \u00a0 2\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a00\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a06
\n5\u00a0 \u00a0 FRA\u00a0 \u00a0 2\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a00\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a00\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Olimp\u00edada 2012<\/strong>
\nrank pais ouro prata bronze total
\n1\u00a0 \u00a0 USA\u00a0 \u00a012\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a07\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a05\u00a0 \u00a0 24
\n2\u00a0 \u00a0 CHN\u00a0 \u00a0 5\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a09
\n3\u00a0 \u00a0 FRA\u00a0 \u00a0 3\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a00\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04
\n4\u00a0 \u00a0 RSA\u00a0 \u00a0 2\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a00\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a03
\n5\u00a0 \u00a0 NED\u00a0 \u00a0 2\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a00\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a03
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

O padr\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m se observa em ciclos anteriores. Por exemplo, de 2006 para 2008, em 7 provas (26,9%) os l\u00edderes de rankings confirmaram medalhas de ouro. Tanto para l\u00edderes de ranking quanto para p\u00f3dio, menos de 50% se mant\u00eam nos Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos em posi\u00e7\u00f5es que lhe garantiriam as conquistas virtuais dois anos antes.<\/p>\n

Conclus\u00e3o: muita \u00e1gua ainda vai rolar. Os resultados do ano anterior \u00e0 Olimp\u00edada (por exemplo, de 2015 para 2016) costumam servir como uma proje\u00e7\u00e3o melhor, o que \u00e9 intuitivo. Os n\u00fameros mostram. Mas esse \u00e9 um levantamento que reservamos para divulgar em uma data oportuna.<\/p>\n

Voltaremos a ele no in\u00edcio de 2020.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No final de 2018, o site Best Swimming trouxe o chamado “p\u00f3dio ol\u00edmpico virtual.” Basicamente, uma proje\u00e7\u00e3o dos p\u00f3dios das provas de nata\u00e7\u00e3o em piscina para os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de 2020 baseada nos rankings mundiais em piscina de 50 metros de 2018. Para ler a mat\u00e9ria, clique aqui. Mas qual \u00e9 a rela\u00e7\u00e3o hist\u00f3rica dos […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[195,137],"tags":[279,1651,183,5,714],"class_list":["post-14681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-jogos-olimpicos","category-natacao","tag-curiosidades","tag-estatisticas","tag-jogos-olimpicos","tag-natacao","tag-toquio-2020"],"yoast_head":"\nO quanto devemos confiar nas proje\u00e7\u00f5es ol\u00edmpicas para 2020? - Swimchannel<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/swimchannel.net\/br\/o-quanto-devemos-confiar-nas-projecoes-olimpicas-para-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"O quanto devemos confiar nas proje\u00e7\u00f5es ol\u00edmpicas para 2020? - Swimchannel\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"No final de 2018, o site Best Swimming trouxe o chamado “p\u00f3dio ol\u00edmpico virtual.” Basicamente, uma proje\u00e7\u00e3o dos p\u00f3dios das provas de nata\u00e7\u00e3o em piscina para os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de 2020 baseada nos rankings mundiais em piscina de 50 metros de 2018. Para ler a mat\u00e9ria, clique aqui. 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